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SUMMARY:Physical\, mathematical and statistical challenges for the study o
 f extremes in a changing climate
DTSTART:20200303T100000Z
DTEND:20200303T110000Z
DTSTAMP:20261010T110500Z
UID:indico-event-5972@indico.ijclab.in2p3.fr
DESCRIPTION:Speakers: Pascal Yiou (LSCE\, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ)\n\nExtreme Event 
 Attribution (EEA) is a new branch of atmospheric sciences that tackles the
  relations between the occurrence of extreme climate events (like heatwave
 s\, cold spells\, storms\, etc.) and climate forcings (like human induced 
 greenhouse gas emissions). While it is obviously impossible give a cause t
 o the triggering of an event\, EEA concentrates on how the event probabili
 ties can change when climate forcings are applied. The first difficulty to
  overcome is linked to the sampling of extreme events\, which are rare by 
 essence. Then more subtle (but important) challenges appear\, like the phy
 sical definition of the event (what variable? what domain?)\, the factors 
 leading to the event\, then how to estimate probabilities. Treating those 
 challenges requires tools from statistics (extreme value theory\, stochast
 ic processes...)\, dynamical systems (recurrences in chaotic systems) and 
 climate model simulations.  \n\nI will give elements of EEA and will ill
 ustrate how to tackle those challenges on recent climate events that hit E
 urope.\n\n \n\nhttps://indico.ijclab.in2p3.fr/event/5972/
LOCATION:200/1-101 - Salle 101 (IJCLab)
URL:https://indico.ijclab.in2p3.fr/event/5972/
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